The short version
A lot of sellers are still pricing for the market we had a couple of years ago. The data says that market is gone. Homes priced for today are selling. Homes priced for 2024 are expiring, getting withdrawn, and coming back at the same price.
1. The market reset
Here are the median sale prices in 78373 for January through August by year. What trend line are you seeing?
2024 was the high point. We're 15% below it now.
We're also 9% below 2025.
Homes are taking longer to sell, and there's more inventory to choose from. Active listings are up 26% from 2024.
If your number is built on what the neighbor got in 2024, you're pricing against a market that doesn't exist anymore.
2. What sellers are asking vs. what's selling
I compared asking price per square foot to what 2026 sales have actually closed at for the same bedroom count in Port Aransas.
Homes that sold started out about 11% above recent sales, then closed at about 92% of that original list price.
Homes that expired or were withdrawn were asking about 21% above. Half of them were 20% or more above.
Active listings today are asking about 18% above.
The homes that sold weren't priced at the market either. They had some room to negotiate. But the failed listings left a lot more room than buyers were willing to give.
The sold homes in Port Aransas this year went for about $364 per foot. The failed listings asked about $427. The market gap is $63 per foot, and it's not closing on its own.
3. How the submarkets compare
Port Aransas, Cinnamon Shore and Palmilla are three different markets. Here's what's closing in each one in 2026, with Cinnamon Shore North and South combined.
And just the last 30 days (September 19 – October 19):
Price per foot: sold vs asking by submarket
Cinnamon Shore is holding. Homes sell for about $668 per foot and close at nearly 96% of original list. Sellers there are asking about $700 to $720 per foot, only 5% to 8% above what's closing. That's a small gap, and that's why it moves.
Port Aransas is where the gap is. Homes sold around $364 per foot (median) and the failed listings asked $427. That's 17% over. It's also 203 of the 255 sales, so it's most of the market.
Palmilla has the widest gap: homes sold around $473 per foot (median) and sellers are asking around $675. The homes aren't different. Sold and active Palmilla homes are about the same size (roughly 2,080 sq ft) and age (built 2021–2022). The median home that sold went for $865K. The median active listing is asking $1.31M. Buyers aren't paying that yet.
Last 30 days: Port Aransas did 27 sales, Cinnamon Shore 5 and Palmilla 2. The Palmilla and Cinnamon Shore numbers are small, so I'd watch the full-year figures.
The submarket that is pricing closest to the market is the one that's selling closest to list.
4. Relisting at the same price
I matched every expired or withdrawn listing to later listings at the same address.
153 failed listings have been relisted.
103 are active again right now.
33 of those came back at the same price. Most of the rest got small cuts. Across all 103, the median change was a 2% cut.
The typical relist came back after about 15 days.
And here's how the relists have done so far, for the ones that have an outcome:
5. What it costs to wait
In Port Aransas this year, the longer a home sat, the more it gave up:
Discount by days on market
Days on market at sale ---- | Sold vs. original list |
|---|---|
Under 90 days | 96.0% |
90–179 days | 89.7% |
180+ days | 80.6% |
A home priced right on day one sells at about 96% of list. A home that sits for six months sells at about 81%. Waiting for a better offer usually means a worse one.
6. What I'd tell a seller right now
Price off the last 90 days of sales, not 2024. Look at what closed this fall in your submarket, with your bedroom count. That's your starting point.
Your first price matters most. Fresh listings get the most buyer attention. Overpricing and cutting later spends that attention for nothing.
If you're relisting, change the price. A 2% cut doesn't change the buyer's math. If it didn't sell at $X, the answer isn't $X again.
Cut enough to move buyers. Cuts of 10% or more did best in the data. A small cut is just a delay.
Know the thresholds. $600K and $700K are search cutoffs. A home at $695K gets seen by buyers a $705K home doesn't.
Rates are still high. Freddie Mac had the 30-year at 7.32% on October 22. Don't plan on rates bailing out a high price.
Cinnamon Shore and Palmilla are different. They're selling closer to list, but the same rule holds: the homes that sell are priced to the market. Cinnamon Shore sellers are closest to it, and Palmilla sellers have the furthest to go.
7. What I'd tell a buyer right now
The same data that says sellers need to come down says buyers have room to work. Here's how I'd use it.
Don't anchor on the list price. Homes that sold this year closed at about 92% of original list. The last 30 days were 93.8%. In Port Aransas, failed listings asked about 17% over what's actually selling.
Know your submarket's number. Sold prices per foot in 2026: about $364 in Port Aransas, $473 in Palmilla (median), and about $670 in Cinnamon Shore. Compare the ask to that, not to the home next door.
Look up the listing history. Check MLS for earlier listings at the same address. If it expired or was withdrawn and came back at the same price, that seller has already carried the home for months. That's leverage.
Go after the ones that have been sitting. In Port Aransas, homes that sold after 180 days or more went for about 81% of original list. There are 239 active Port Aransas listings that old right now.
Make a real offer. Cuts of 10% or more did best for sellers in the data, so sellers who took them got deals done. A lowball offer isn't the goal. An offer based on closed sales is.
Move fast on the ones that are priced right. Homes that sold in under 90 days went for about 96% of list. When a listing is at the market, there's less room and more competition.
Cinnamon Shore is different. It's selling around 96% of list, with asking prices only 5–8% above closed sales. Buyers there compete on terms and speed, not price.
Ask about concessions. With rates still near 7.32%, seller-paid closing costs or a rate buydown can be worth as much as a price cut. Talk to your lender about what makes sense for you.
Don't skip the due diligence. Inventory is up 26% from 2024, so you have time to inspect and compare. November is usually the slowest month, which tends to favor buyers.
If you're thinking about selling, buying, or you have a listing that expired or got withdrawn, I'll pull comps for your street, your submarket, and your bedroom count. Then we'll set a price that works in 2026.
Joel Harris | TX Beach Luxury - Phyllis Browning Company | Grand Welcome Rental Management (210) 872-4437 | jharris@phyllisbrowning.com